907 FXUS61 KCAR 080226 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 926 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2002 .UPDATED...SATELLITE/RADAR SHOW CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUD CONDITIONS AND THE PROGRESSION OF FLURRIES INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINE. THROUGH 02 Z TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY IN ZONES 1>6...AND WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LAST ALL NIGHT...FEEL TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT. DOWNEAST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP SOME. WINDS WILL PREVENT BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL RAISE TEMPS NORTH...AND LOWER THEM DOWNEAST. ON THE WATERS...WILL LOWER GALES TO STRONG SCA. 925 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF A BIT...AND AND INCREASINGLY STABLE LAYER SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DROP A TAD. .SYNOPSIS..AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN OFF THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EARLY WINTER SEASON WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. CLOUD BAND IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH NOW STARTING TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BY THIS EVENING CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE SO WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEN CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY NOT PROGRESS MUCH BELOW KMLT TONIGHT ACCORDING TO RH PROGS SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY SKIES ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS. WILL MENTION FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT BUT WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. ARCTIC FRONT LINES UP WITH -1OC TO -12C H8 ISOTHERM ON ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SO WILL USE THAT TO FORECAST FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS OUR CWA ON SUNDAY. EXPECT FRONT TO ENTER NORTHWEST MAINE AROUND MIDMORNING...THEN TO CROSS CARIBOU AREA AROUND NOONTIME...THROUGH BANGOR AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY OFF THE COAST. GUIDANCE ONLY PROVIDING CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT WILL STICK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS AND KEEP LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS. DOWN EAST WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN DOWNGLIDE SHOULD QUICKLY DRY THINGS OUT. SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. BY EARLY EVENING OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE STATE WITH H8 TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE BELOW -30C FOR NORTHERN AREAS ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO DROP WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS DOWN EAST SECTIONS. CORE OF COLD AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. PLENTY OF SUN WILL NOT HELP TEMPERATURES WARM MUCH ABOVE 0F ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS DOWN EAST. ARCTIC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT START TO REBOUND MONDAY NIGHT AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY COVER OUR CWA ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM WITH THE INCREASE CLOUD COVER. COASTAL WATERS...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. AS GRADIENT RELAXES LATER TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BLOW GALE LEVEL. SCA SHOULD COVER THE WATERS MUCH OF SUNDAY AND THEN AS ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE WATER SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT NORTHWEST GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. .CAR...SCA. APFFEL