928 
FXUS64 KBMX 022018 AAA
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  AMENDED TO ADD PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
214 PM CST MON DEC 02 2002

THE MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS UNBELIEVABLE.  THE MODELS
ARE SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY.  A FEW DAYS AGO...THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING THAT ALL THE WET WEATHER FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM WOULD BE OUT OF
HERE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE CURRENT RUN IS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  THIS BECOMES A TWO FOLD ISSUE.
ONE...HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND...AND FOR HOW LONG ON
THURSDAY...AND TWO...HOW FAST THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN.  AT THIS
POINT IN TIME WILL OPT FOR MENTIONING A COLD RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
FLURRIES BY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST AVN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO FALL AS
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THURSDAY MORNING IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
TO TURN TO SNOW...MAYBE EVEN MIXED WITH SOME SLEET.  DON/T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATIONS.  WILL LEAVE IT TO FUTURE SHIFTS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.

ANOTHER INTERESTING SITUATION IS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY.
SWODY3 HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT IT DOES NOSE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.  AT THIS TIME I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WAS HEARD IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS...
BUT DON/T EXPECT ANYTHING ELSE.  A GOOD THETA E RIDGE IS OUT IN
FRONT OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT ALL OF THE INDICES ARE POSITIVE.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED:  THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY...AND IT COULD
BE A FAIRLY DEEP ONE.

THANKS TO NASHVILLE FOR COORDINATION.


PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
HSV  035/052 038/045 030 0049
BHM  037/056 044/049 033 0059
MGM  036/064 047/058 039 0047

.BHM...NONE.

80