864 
FXUS63 KFSD 202145
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 
345 PM CST WED NOV 20 2002

MODELS RUNNING PRETTY CONSISTENTLY IN THE SHORT TERM...SO NOT MANY 
CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STRATOCU SLIDING SOUTH INTO 
THE AREA HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL 
LOOKING AT SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA THIS 
EVENING...WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.  WILL HANG ONTO THE CHANCE OF 
SOME DRIZZLE IN THE POST FRONTAL STRATUS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA 
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DEEPEST IN THIS 
AREA.    

LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD 
SEE RELATIVELY MILD READINGS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SUN 
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL 
RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEE TEMPS 
DIP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...MAKING FOR A COOL START BEFORE 
THE LAST CHANCE AT A MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA.  AGREE WITH PREVIOUS 
FORECASTER THAT MIXING WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN HIGH TEMP FORECAST 
FOR FRIDAY...AND WILL KEEP THE EAST CLOSER TO NORMAL DUE TO LIGHTER 
WINDS NEAR THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.

GFS/ETA A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SWINGING THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.  WILL SEE 
COLDEST TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS NOT CLIMBING OUT OF 
THE 20S.  WILL HANG ONTO FLURRIES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH A 
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE...ALBEIT STILL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTH 
CLOSER TO SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. 

.FSD...NONE