000 
FXUS61 KCAR 180948
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
445 AM EST MON NOV 18 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE
OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACIANS ON THURSDAY WILL AFFECT NEW ENGLAND LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...A POWERFUL AND COMPLEX EARLY WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS CONTINUING
TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE SNOW...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA ON SATURDAY WAS A RESULT OF WARM
AIR SURGING NORTH OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TODAY...HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN
DYNAMICALLY GENERATED PRECIPITATION TODAY. SEVERAL BUNDLES OF VORTICITY ARE
CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EAST EDGE OF THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN SEVERAL MARGINALLY ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE
STRONGEST BUNDLE OF VORTICITY SWINGS UP FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH...THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. ANY SLEET SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS THE
AIR ALOFT RAPIDLY COOLS. PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE
WILL BE MORE SHOWERY. LATER TODAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES...GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL
INCREASE RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND POSSIBLY NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE AMOUNT OF DRIFTING AND THE REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE FAR NORTH WHICH GREATER AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY OVER DOWNEAST
MAINE ALSO...BUT DRIFTING MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO A HIGHER ICE CONTENT IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON THE GROUND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...THEN A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS FOR WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM IN OUR VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...BACKED BY STEEP RIDGING IN THE WEST.
THE FORM OF PRECIPITION IS UNCERTAIN NOW...BUT SNOW IS FAVORED NORTH WITH A
MIX...OR A CHANGE TO RAIN DOWNEAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS
STRONG RIDGING WILL WANT TO REMAIN IN THE WEST KEEPING THE EAST IN A COLD
AND STORMY PATTERN.


.CAR...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MON: ZONES 1>6/10-31
       WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT: ZONES 11/32/15>17.
       GALE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS

MCB