659 FXUS65 KMSO 172131 AFDMSO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 230 PM MST SUN NOV 17 2002 .SHORT TERM...MOIST UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS BRIEF RIDGING BRINGS IN WARMER AIR ALOFT... STABILIZING THE AIR MASS. THE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...TRANSPORTING IN MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS. A STRONGER WAVE...ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET...WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING 150W...AND LOOKS STRONGER THAN MODELS INITIALIZED. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...AGAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...DURING THESE TIME PERIODS. MODELS AND UPSTREAM OFFICES ARE GOING PRETTY WET WITH THIS EVENT...AND WILL ADJUST NUMBERS TO AT LEAST APPROACH THE SAME BALL PARK. HOWEVER...AM STILL SOMEWHAT DRIER DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF RECENT PRECIP...AND TO ATTEMPT SOME PACKAGE TO PACKAGE CONSISTENCY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER TO FORCE THE MOISTURE NORTH AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE ALONG WEST COAST. SO WILL LINGER SOME SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DRYING MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOCALLY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...UNTIL THE RIDGE DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD UNDER THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...CLEARING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL...AND STRONGER INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL MAKE DAYTIME WARMING SLUGGISH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHITMORE .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN MONTANA MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THE WAVE CROSSES THE CWA FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ALL LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT THE POPS SLIDE SOUTH AS THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. SATURDAY A SPLIT FLOW SETS UP AND WILL ACT AS A BLOCKING FEATURE FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO MAKING FOR CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GILCHRIST .MSO...NONE. ...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS... LIB EEB 032/043 033/046 029/047 34011000 UEUU 025/047 028/044 023/044 024/046 3300020000 FCA EEB 031/043 035/046 031/045 34011000 UEUU 024/045 027/042 023/042 024/044 3300010000 POL EEB 040/044 040/048 036/046 34011000 UEUU 030/045 033/042 027/042 028/044 3300010000 MSO EEB 029/044 036/046 032/046 34011000 UBBU 024/046 026/043 024/043 025/045 3300011000 HMM EEB 030/046 037/050 033/049 34011000 UBBU 022/048 024/044 023/043 024/045 3300001000 BTM EEB 021/043 025/046 021/046 34001000 UBBU 013/045 014/041 013/040 014/042 3300001000 ORO EEB 034/053 040/057 036/057 34000000 UBUU 037/054 037/050 033/049 034/051 3300011000 GRV EEB 029/049 037/054 033/056 34002100 UBBU 030/050 032/045 031/044 032/046 3300001000 SMN EEB 023/041 025/044 021/041 34001000 UBBU 018/043 018/042 019/041 020/043 3300001000