613 
FXUS64 KLUB 172037
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
237 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2002

UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER NV PROGGED TO MOVE TO WRN OKLA BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. SHOULD A PERIOD OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE. STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE CIRRUS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FA ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE FA IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA BY
NOON WITH FAIRLY BRISK WINDS BEHIND IT. EXTENT OF COOL DOWN SHOULD BE
MODERATE...KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS.

MEANWHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES...
ALTHOUGH MAYBE A LITTLE MORE CLARITY. EXPECT SOME EXTENT OF RIDGING
ACRS THE WRN US WITH N/NW UPPER FLOW OVER THE FA. IF AMPLIFICATION
IS TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS...WOULD EXPECT SERIES OF SUPPORTING
COOL SURGES WHICH WOULD BE COUNTERACTED BY INCREASING HEIGHT AND
THICKNESSES. WILL THUS MAKE FEW CHANGES...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR NORMAL
FOR DAYS 2 THRU 6. GFS ON DAY 7 BRINGING IN COOLER AIR...CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHC OF RAIN. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY LATER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN.
WILL TREND THAT DIRECTION ATTM.

FCSTID = 07

FRIONA      36 59 28 63 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       36 60 30 64 / 00 00 00 00
LUBBOCK     38 62 32 66 / 00 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  39 63 33 67 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   41 64 35 66 / 00 00 00 00
ASPERMONT   45 66 36 68 / 00 00 00 00

.LUB...NONE.