874 
FXUS65 KTFX 171639
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
940 AM MST SUN NOV 17 2002

.SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST STATUS OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY PLACING CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TYPICAL
FALL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
SURFACE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED A BIT THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO SUBSIDE. WILL CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR TODAY THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTY. SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES EXTREMELY TIGHT
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL ADDRESS THIS SITUATION BY ISSUING A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS. EMANUEL

.EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA FOR CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS...BUT CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN EARLY IN THE
WEEK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE
LATE THURSDAY AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ON FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL...SO NO
NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. JCA

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NE 053/035 054/035 056 14001
    EBBEB 038/057 035/056 028/046 025/040 025 11000011100
CTB NE 050/035 052/032 053 14001
    EBBEB 034/053 030/051 023/043 020/036 020 11000011100
HLN BE 053/032 053/031 059 14211
    EBBEB 032/051 027/050 024/039 017/036 017 11000011100
BZN EE 050/023 047/024 053 14211
    EBBEB 022/044 018/044 015/039 012/040 012 11000011100
WEY EE 034/015 036/018 044 14322
    EBBEB 016/037 011/038 008/028 008/036 008 22000011100
DLN EE 044/024 048/023 046 14211
    EBBEB 022/045 019/045 015/040 014/041 014 11000011100
HVR NE 054/033 052/028 057 14001
    EBBEB 033/053 026/057 026/046 021/042 021 11000011100
LWT BE 048/031 051/028 055 14001
    EBBEE 035/054 030/052 025/043 022/038 022 11000011100

.TFX...HIGH WIND WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
       NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS.