994 
FXUS64 KBMX 162042
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
241 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2002

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF ALABAMA LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLEN TODAY DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. AT THIS TIME...
IT LOOKS LIKE WESTERN SECTIONS OF STATE WILL CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE...
WITH REMAINDER OF STATE CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING.  VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS STAY IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.  SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.  COUNTIES IN WEST ALABAMA WILL
LIKELY DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT I
FELT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE
ISSUED FREEZE WATCH.

UPPER TROF MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY AND UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  GFS MODELS
DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SHIFTS ITS THE
LOW SOUTHWEST.  DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.


HSV 32 44 28 56/  0 0 0 0
BHM 33 47 28 58/  0 0 0 0
MGM 37 52 30 60/  0 0 0 0

.BHM...FREEZE WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT ZONES 1>50.

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