860 
FXUS61 KBGM 101956
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSED THROUGH THE AREA...WEAKENING AS IT DID
SO. A LINE OF TSTORMS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
AT 2PM EXTENDED FROM THE ERN U.P OF MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL TEXAS. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
IN NRN ALABAMA...THEN MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT...WITH AN AREA OF
RAIN AHEAD OF IT. RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK...
WITH ERN ZONES PROBABLY NOT SEEING ANY RAIN UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
DONT THINK THE TSTORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT...SO WILL NOT
MENTION THUNDER IN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE MODELS ARE DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THERE ARE ONCE
AGAIN BIG DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY OVER THE SE U.S.. THE 12Z GFS IS
NOT AS WOUND UP WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED WITH EARLIER RUNS...BUT IS
STILL THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

MONDAY..THE AREA OF RAIN/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ERN ZONES BY
MID-AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEHIND IT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 60-65. THOSE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS IN
BGM (63) AND AVP (65).

MON NIGHT..THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NRN ZONES DURING THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE IT WILL
GRADUALLY TURN COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TUESDAY..LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER GA/SC AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH
SHARPENS UP. A STRONG 170KT JET WILL DEVELOP OVER SE CANADA...WITH
OUR AREA IN THE FAVORABLE RR QUAD. THINK PRECIP WILL BEGIN SOONER AND
WILL SPREAD FARTHER NW THAN GFS DEPICTS...SO HAVE PUT IN A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL ZONES.

EXTENDED (TUE NIGHT-SUN)..A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD TUE NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR POSSIBLY WET SNOW
COMING TO AN END WED MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND AFFECT OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM ON SAT...WITH DRY AND COLD AND
COLD CONDITIONS ON SUN.

WORK ZONES OUT. ZONES BY 315 PM.

.BGM...NONE.

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