000 
ACUS11 KWNS 100253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100253 
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-100430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2161
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO/SRN IL INTO SWRN IN/WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 740...

VALID 100253Z - 100430Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND/DEVELOP N OF WW 740 INTO SRN IL/SWRN
INDIANA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE ATTM
IS TOO SMALL TO REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL WW.


REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STRONG STORMS EXTENDING FROM CARTER COUNTY
MO NEWD TO MADISON COUNTY MO...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER PERRY/
BOLLINGER COUNTIES MO.	MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
NRN PORTION OF WW 740.	HOWEVER...FARTHER NORTH INTO SRN IL/SWRN
INDIANA...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS AND SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...AS LOWER 60 SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO SRN IL AND FAR SWRN INDIANA.	DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

37129019 38858928 38958822 38908734 38698676 37078756