638 
FXUS66 KLOX 081709
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
910 AM PST FRI NOV 8 2002

MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIP TOTALS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT
ANY SPECIFIC AREAS OF CONCERN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE SHOULD BE A LET UP IN THE PRECIP
LATER THIS MORNING. THIS DOES NOT REALLY AGREE WITH THE 12Z MESO ETA
AS IT ACTUALLY SHOWS HEAVIER RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z, BUT IM GOING TO DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW AND EXTEND THE FLOOD
ADVISORY ONLY UNTIL NOON. HOWEVER, I DO THINK THAT RAIN WILL PICK UP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE RAIN THATS ALREADY FALLEN. THIS IS NOT REALLY INDICATED BY
THE MODELS, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS
MORE OUT THERE THAN THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON.

BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN RAINFALL
SATURDAY. BUT I DONT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS BASED ON WHAT
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SO IM INCLINED NOT TO MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER
IMPULSE ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT SO THE IDEA OF KEEPING AT LEAST SOME
RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT LOOKS GOOD.

CURRENT ZONES LOOK REASONABLY WET AND DONT SEE ANY REASON TO UPDATE
THIS MORNING.

LAX ++8. WOFFORD

.LOX...FLOOD ADVISORY (LAXFLSLOX)
       HIGH SURF ADVISORY (LAXMWSLOX).