409 
FXUS66 KPQR 070437
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST WED NOV 6 2002

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WEST FLOW WILL PUNCH INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BRINGING WET AND WINDY WEATHER.  THE INITIAL FRONT
APPROACHING THE COAST MOVES ASHORE EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
HE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.  A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS.  SNOW LEVELS IN THE CASCADES WILL FALL TO NEAR 5000 FEET
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...EVE ETA FAIRLY CLOSE TO 18Z AVN.  WEAKENING FRONT ALONG
COAST MAINLY KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL AREAS THIS EVE.  STRONG
FRONT CROSSING 130W MOVES ASHORE THU MORNING. ETA WEAKENS SYSTEM
FAIRLY QUICKLY.  SATELLITE SHOWS SYSTEM STILL INCREASING SO EXPECT
FAIRLY GOOD PRECIPITATION COAST WITH SOME WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INLAND THOUGH A GOOD THREAT OF RAIN ALL CWA.  HWW MARGINAL LOW END
CENTRAL COAST.  AS FRONT APPROACHES BY 12Z S GRADIENT REACHES S PART
OF N ORE COAST SO WILL EXTEND WARNING TO THERE.  REMAINING PART OF
COAST GRADIENT MORE E SO WILL KEEP AREA OUT OF WARNING.  WILL NEED TO
WATCH ALL COAST FOR THU AS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD BRING DOWN
STRONGER WINDS.  BEHIND FRONT SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS SO
WILL ADD TSTMS TO COASTAL FORECAST.  NEXT SHORT NEAR 140W PULLS NEXT
WAVE UP ALONG FRONT.  HW PX REMAINS WELL S ALONG JET IN N CA. 
HOWEVER BOTH ETA/AVN DEVELOP FAIRLY GOOD WAVE WHICH WILL BRING GOOD
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ALL CWA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.  WITH COLD
AIR AND LOW LI ON AVN WILL ADD CHANCE OF TSTMS ALL AREAS THU NIGHT. 
FREEZING LEVELS LOWER BEHIND SYSTEM SO STICKING SNOW HIGHER CASCADES
LIKELY BY FRI MORNING.  FOR FRI W FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS OVER AREA WITH STICKING SNOW STILL 5000 FEET AND HIGHER. 
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP EYE
ON.  FRI NIGHT COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN DROPPING SNOW LEVELS
TO NEAR 4000 FEET.  BY SAT MORNING STORM TOTALS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL START ADDING UP WITH SOME ACCUMULATION AT PASS LEVEL.  ON SAT
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES.  SNOW LEVELS RISE BUT STILL SNOW STILL IMPACTS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  NO STRONG SYSTEM STILL SHOWING UP THOUGH GRADIENT
MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH FOR WIND EVENT ESPECIALLY S COASTAL AREA.  

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. 

AST 8++999  PDX 699889  SLE 699889  EUG 799889

.PQR...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE.
       HIGH WIND WARNING CENTRAL COAST AND TILLAMOOK COUNTY TONIGHT   
       AND THU.
       HIGH SURF ADVISORY LATE THU.