014 
FXUS65 KTFX 062220
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
320 PM MST WED NOV 6 2002

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE AXIS IS SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES. A LOW
PRESSURE TROF IS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND HAS BEEN SENDING WEAK
SHORTWAVES EAST OVER THE RIDGE...CREATING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE ZONES BUT NO PRECIP.  LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER SASK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ALSO INCREASE.
PACIFIC TROF WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. VORTICITY PATTERN IS
QUITE DISORGANIZED AND THE RH IS SATURATED ONLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
WEST FLOW WILL ALSO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. EXCEPT WILL BE
ALONG THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE POPS SHOULD BE AT LIKELY. SNOW
LEVEL WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH...PERHAPS 6000 FT. VALLEYS AND PLAINS
WILL SEE RAIN WITH SNOW RESTRICTED TO HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  ZELZER

.EXTENDED...ECMWF/UKMET/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRENDS
DURING THE PERIOD. SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BE AFFECTED BY AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES AS FLOW ALOFT VEERS
FROM WLY TO NWLY. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE AN UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA BEFORE THE AREA COMES UNDER W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT AND MORE MOISTURE. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DOWNSLOPE TO PREVENT MUCH THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. SHOULD MENTION THAT LATEST GFS
HAS BACKED OFF BIG TIME ON AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS EARLIER FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NRN CANADA. IN THE EARLIER FORECAST A COOL CANADIAN
AIRMASS AFFECTED THE PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO WED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW. LATEST RUN HAS NO UPPER LOW AND NO COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO HAVE DISCOUNTED PREVIOUS MEX GUIDANCE AND GONE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT WARMER FORECAST IN THE ZONES. BLANK

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF CE 040/059 038/053 032 13-11
    EEBBB 048/029 045/029 045/032 052/032 050 22223211111
CTB CE 040/056 035/050 028 13-11
    EEBBB 045/026 040/027 042/031 050/030 048 22223111111
HLN CE 025/052 031/053 029 13-11
    EEEBB 048/029 046/026 046/029 051/031 049 22223221111
BZN CE 018/047 028/050 028 13-11
    EEEBB 045/024 045/024 043/024 046/026 046 22223221111
WEY CE 007/036 020/040 020 13011
    EEEBE 035/017 036/017 035/018 039/022 039 22233221111
DLN CE 024/049 030/049 028 13-11
    EEEBB 044/025 043/025 043/028 046/028 046 44423221111
HVR EE 035/060 032/052 028 13011
    EEBBB 047/025 043/026 043/029 052/029 050 22212211111
LWT EE 033/057 031/052 029 13011
    EEBBB 047/026 044/026 043/028 050/030 048 22223211111

.TFX...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NW MT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
       EVENING...SEE WWUS75 KTFX/GTFNPWTFX