000 
FXUS66 KPQR 060502
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST TUE NOV 5 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEK. THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST TONIGHT WILL STRETCH APART AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...THE NEXT
FRONTS WILL MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING AND
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH MORE RAIN INLAND. THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
MOVES IN FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH STRONGER DUE TO ENTRAINED MOISTURE
FROM EX-TYPHOON HUKO. A WET AND WINDY PERIOD WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. 
MODELS WEAKEN THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE 10-12Z WED BUT IT DOES
HOLD TOGETHER SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONT FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP.  ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS RIGHT BEHIND WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE MORE PUNCH TO IT AS THE SPLIT IN THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS
FURTHER EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE.  SURFACE GRADIENTS SHOWN BY THE
LATEST ETA/AVN STILL 10-12MB OR BETTER ACROSS THE OREGON COAST WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL 850MB JET OF 60-65KT ALONG THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  BELIEVE THIS STILL SUPPORTS HIGH WIND CRITERIA CENTRAL COAST
AND WILL FRESHEN UP STATEMENT AND BUMP SUSTAINED WIND SLIGHTLY. 
850MB WINDS SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE NORTH COAST FOR A MORE MARGINAL
EVENT. WILL OPT TO LEAVE THAT AREA OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW.

ALL MODELS INDICATING THE TREND OF STRONGER SYSTEMS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AVN SHOWS A STRONGER LOW FOR FRIDAY
WITH MOISTURE FROM EX-HURRICANE HUKO.  JET POSITION APPEARS BETTER
FOR DEEPENING SHORT WAVES AS THEY APPROACH.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS AND RAIN. 
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND TO CONTINUE THE WET
PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES.

MERCER


AST 68888+  PDX 278888  SLE 278889  EUG 278889

.PQR...GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED.