403 
FXUS64 KLUB 041925
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
120 PM MON NOV 04 2002

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE THAT MOVED OUT OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAVE EXITED 
THE REGION WITH THE IMPULSE LOCATED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 
1845Z OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS 
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO 
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE 
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW A MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING 
EAST AND MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. WARMER WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EAST AND LEE TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO BORDER. 

EXTENDED:MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING
500 MB RIDGE THROUGH WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WHERE THEY DIFFER IS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THEY ARE IN 
BASIC AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A BROAD TROF OVER THE CENTRAL 
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A BROAD LOW OVER THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THEY DIFFER ON THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF 
SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MRF...CANADIAN AND ECMWF SIMILAR ON HANDLING 
OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING
IT INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. UKMET SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH NOGAPS MUCH FASTER AND STRONGER. WILL ATTM TREND TOWARD
THE MRF WITH DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOWER TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

FRIONA      35/58/31/64  2000
TULIA       35/58/31/64  2000
LUBBOCK     37/60/33/65  2000
BROWNFIELD  37/61/34/66  2000
CHILDRESS   38/60/35/66  3000
ASPERMONT   40/62/39/67  3000

.LUB...NONE.

JV/08