856 FXUS65 KTFX 032204 AFDTFX SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 300 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2002 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. NEVER THE LESS...MODELS DEVELOP MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LIFT TO WRING OUT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. A LEE TROUGH IN CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ALBERTA STRENGTHENS TONIGHT FOR INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE LEE CYCLONE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME AFTERNOON MIXING IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER DISCUSSION WITH MISSOULA FORECASTER. THE PLAINS WILL HAVE BETTER LUCK...AND EXPECT THAT DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL COMBINE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THIS AREA. MPJ .EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET AND WARM WEATHER TO LEAD OFF THE EXTENDED ON THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH OVER CENTRAL CANADA...BUT THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW COOL DOWN OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA ALONG WTIH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...DUE TO AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THE NORTH...WITH THE COOLING TREND CONTINUING. BRUSDA .CCF NUMBERS GTF BB 026/043 025/048 029 14011 BBBEE 054/032 055/033 050/031 048/030 045 00000001111 CTB BB 020/042 022/049 027 14011 BBEEE 052/030 052/029 047/028 046/027 043 00000001111 HLN BB 016/036 017/040 021 14011 BBEEE 044/024 050/026 046/025 044/026 041 00000001333 BZN EB 000/028 007/031 010 14011 BBEEE 036/018 045/021 042/020 040/022 039 00000001111 WEY EB -02/027 004/030 008 14022 BBBEE 034/013 038/018 034/014 033/013 032 00000001111 DLN BB 005/026 008/031 010 14011 BBEEE 037/021 046/024 042/023 040/025 038 00000001333 HVR BB 020/044 020/048 025 14011 BBBEE 053/028 054/029 050/028 049/028 046 00000001111 LWT BB 020/042 021/047 026 14011 BBBEE 050/029 053/030 049/029 047/028 044 00000001111 .TFX...NONE