848 
FXUS62 KILM 031919
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
220 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2002

ZFP: HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS CONTINUED OVER THE FORECAST THIS 
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK FIRST WEAK LOW TO OUR SOUTH. 
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SEEN ON THE 298K SURFACE AND AS DISTURBANCE 
PASSED TO THE EAST IT APPEARS THE LIFT TERMINATES BY MIDDAY ON 
MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MERGES WITH THE SHORT WAVE IN THE 
NORTHWEST BRINGS IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY AND 
THE PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT 
DIFFERENCE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE GFS IS AROUND 
10 MILLIBARS DEEPER AND 6 HOURS FASTER. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GFS
IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE ON A TRACK FROM JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI 
TO OFF THE COAST NEAR NORFOLK VIRGINIA. 

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AND 
FOLLOWED THE MOS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

CWF:  NOT MUCH PRES GRADIENT TO SPEAK OF DURING THE FIRST 36 HRS OR 
SO.  MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND STRONG SFC LOW MOVING OFF MID 
ATLANTIC COAST WED.  AVN TIMING AND TRACK ON THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTED 
IN 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN...HOWEVER I THINK THE 40 KT SFC WINDS WED 
MORNING ARE OVERDONE.  AFTER COORD WITH CHS AND MPC WILL TAKE A 
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND BRING UP A SOLID 25 KT SW WIND AHEAD OF THE 
LOW WED MORNING...AND MAINTAIN THAT SPEED AS WINDS SHIFT NW BY WED 
EVENING.   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED NIGHT THRU 
FRI.  WW3 SEAS ON WED ARE AS OVERDONE AS AVN WINDS SO WILL ADJUST 
ACCORDINGLY. 


FCSTID = 7
ILM   47  62  48  66 /  40  40  10  30
LBT   46  59  47  63 /  40  40  10  40
FLO   47  60  50  63 /  40  50  10  40
MYR   48  62  50  65 /  40  60  10  30

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.


PUBLIC...HAWKINS
MARINE...RAS