000 
FXUS62 KILM 030210 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
900 PM EST SAT NOV 2 2002

MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER ERN SC THIS 
EVENING...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS 
ALLOWED WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT IF NOT CALM ACROSS THE AREA. THESE 
LIGHT/CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED IN IDEAL 
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS FALLING NEARLY 15 DEGREES 
SINCE SUNSET. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PICK UP ANY 
TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH...CIRRUS WILL BEGIN 
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W AND THICKENING WITH A ZONAL 
FLOW IN PLACE. THE INSULATION PROVIDED BY THESE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD 
BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT 
WELL INTO THE LOW OR MID 30S...THEREFORE LIMITING ANY POTENTIAL OF 
WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN 
CLIMBING SINCE MID-AFTERNOON. 

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER TO 
INDICATE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. PLAN TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 
LOWS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST IN 
NRN ZONES...AND MAY NEED TO ADD MENTION TO SRN INLAND ZONES AS WELL. 

MARINE: ALL COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW 
THIS EVENING...AND THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CWF TO LOWER WINDS TO 
LESS THAN 10 KTS AND JUST MENTION STEADY 2 FT SEAS. THIS IS 
SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM FRYING PAN SHOALS WHERE SEAS HAVE 
BEEN NEAR 2 FT NOW FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 

FCSTID = 36
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM   38  62  45  62 /   0   0  30  50
LBT   36  62  44  57 /   0   0  40  50
FLO   38  63  47  60 /   0   0  40  50
MYR   40  64  48  62 /   0   0  30  50

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

JAQ