000 FXAK67 PAJK 201907 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1045 AM ADT SUN OCT 20 2002 .SYNOPSIS... .SHORT RANGE...AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET WILL MOVE UP ALONG 140W INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH MODERATE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE OCCLUSION TO MOVE THROUGH ZONE 22 BY EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS AND WINDS DIMINISHING BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EAST OF 140W IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING RAIN MOVING INTO THE COASTAL REGIONS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN THE MARINE, GALES ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND WILL DIMINISH OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS THIS EVENING. .LONG RANGE...MAIN UPR LOW PROB STILL OVR ARC 300-400NM N OF BRW. THERE IS A STG UPR TROF THAT XTNDS SWD ALNG THE W CST AK TO SCNDRY UPR LOW INVOF ADQ. ANOTHER TROF XTNDS WWD ALNG THE ALEUTAIN CHAIN TO YET ANOTHER UPR LOW OVR THE W END OF THE ALEUTAIN CHAIN. THE FTNL SYS FM ABV WL MOV STALL N/S OVR THE SRN PHNDL AND PROB NOT MOV EWD UNTIL TUE MRNG. A DVLPG SFC LOW WL MOV UP THE ALEUTAIN CHAIN AND THEN TURN NWD ALNG THE W CST OF AK MON AFNT. THE LOW SHLD WKN AS IT GETS OVR THE NRN BERING SEA THU MRNG. THE ASSOCD FNTL SYS WL PUSH EWD ACRS THE CNTRL GLF AK TUE AFTN THEN BGN TO STALL AS THE LOW MOVS NWD. THE AVN HINTS OF ANOTHER WK LOW DVLPG NR SWRN GLF AK AND MOVG EWD...BUT THE FNTL SYS DRFTS OVR ERN GLF CST WED AND OFSHR SE AK THU MRNG. THE FNTLS SYS SHLD DSIPT OVR SE AK THU NGT AND FRI. A SECND DVLPG LOW WL MOV EWD ACRS THE N PAC THRU THU AFTN THEN BGN TO CRV NEWD AND DVLP INTO A STRM FRI. THE STRM SHLD MOV OVR THE NERN GLF AK AS A 980MB OR DEEPER SYS BY SUN MRNG. THE ASSOCD FNTL SYS SHLD SPRD OVR SE AK AND ERN GLF CST SAT AFTN/EVENG. THE STRM SHLD WKN OVR THE NERN GLF NXT MON. THE MRF SGSTS A LOW WL MOV NEWD ACRS THE WRN BERING SEA AND DVLP TO NR 956MB THRU NXT SUN MRNG. .AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PUBLIC...NONE MARINE...GALE 1B 2A SCA 1A