219 
FXUS66 KPQR 191608
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING MARINE CLOUDS AND LOCAL MORNING DRIZZLE. THE TRAILING END OF
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
RAIN LIKELY IN THE NORTH AND A CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL REBUILD LATER MON THROUGH WED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING FOR
A WARMING TREND.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
HAS SET OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND LOCAL DRIZZLE
INLAND. TOP OF MARINE LAYER HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 7000 FEET THIS
MORNING AND CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH OF THE DAY BUT ALREADY SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
EXPECT MORE SUN BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. NEW ETA MODEL RUN IS WEAKER ON
THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER 12Z GFS RUN CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME INTENSITY AS PREVIOUS RUNS.  LOOKING AT
SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY A GOOD PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO THIS SYSTEM.  IR
IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS
SOLUTION LOOKS BEST AND CURRENT FORECASTS SEEM TO BE IN 

.LONG TERM...MODELS BUILD A RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. NEW AVN IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN...BRINGING PRECIP TO THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INSTEAD OF THURSDAY. WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS PICK
UP ON THIS TIMING. SCHNEIDER

AST 34631  PDX 12411  SLE 12421  EUG 02321

.PQR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE FOR HAZARDOUS
       SEAS.