085 
FXUS64 KLUB 171918
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
215 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2002

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA...WITH MODELS 
CONSISTENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION...NAMELY ENTERING THE WESTERN 
SOUTH PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TODAY AND 
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP 
OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. NEW RUNS KEEP MOST OF THE 
HEAVIER PRECIP. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WARM 
CONVEYOR BELT INCREASES COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. AMOUNTS 
ACTUALLY DEPICTED FAIRLY LIGHT WEST...BUT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE 
RATES AND HIGHLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF LOW...BELIEVE WE 
WILL SEE SOME COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SURFACE FOCUS AND 
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING MAY LIMIT COVERAGE. SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER 
AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND WRAP 
AROUND CLOUDINESS IN ITS WAKE. 

FEW CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO EXTENDED. NEXT FRONT FORECAST BY MRF ON 
TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING EAST FROM MOUNTAINS OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS. THICKNESSES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR AREAS 
NORTH OF THE OK PANHANDLE. PRELIMS FOLLOW.


FRIONA      48/64/43/60  4642
TULIA       50/65/44/62  4642
LUBBOCK     53/68/48/65  5642
BROWNFIELD  54/69/49/65  5642
CHILDRESS   55/70/52/60  2664
ASPERMONT   58/72/55/65  2564

.LUB...NONE.

VI