315 
FXUS66 KLOX 171548
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
845 AM PDT THU OCT 17 2002

MARINE LYR DEPTH VARYING BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS COLD AIR ALOFT
HAS REALLY CLEARED THINGS OUT SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. LOW LVLS
REMAIN VERY MOIST AND I EXPECT THINGS WILL CLOUD UP AGAIN WITH SOME
AFTERNOON HEATING. UPDATED EARLIER TO TWEAK CLOUD WORDING AND REMOVE
DRIZZLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM LOWER ELEVATION ZONES. ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND LA MTNS
HAS LONG DISSIPATED BUT THE THREAT REMAINS. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION THERE, BUT NOW THAT WERE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNLESS WE GET ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND.

12Z MODELS HAVE NOT COME IN AS OF YET SO I DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD. OVERALL THOUGH ZONES LOOK REASONABLE. WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REDEVELOPS TODAY AND ADJUST
ACCORDINGLY. WITH NO REAL MECHANISM TO DRY THINGS OUT CLOUDS MAY BE
HERE FOR A WHILE. AS A RESULT, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT BEST FOR FRIDAY
LOOK GOOD WITH JUST A SLIGHT WARMUP.

LAX 000. WOFFORD

.LOX...NONE.