644 
FXUS62 KILM 150049
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
830 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT AT TIME ACROSS WESTERN FA. THIS RAIN 
BREAKING OUT AS MOISTURE/WAA OVERRIDES COOL DOME AT SURFACE. VWP 
INDICATING EAST WIND ABOVE 3 KFT TURNING TO S AND SW NEAR 10 KFT.
WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING ABOVE 10 KFT 
AND 40 KT PLUS AT H5.

STRONG WEDGE JUST WEST OF AREA WITH SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH 
BEGINNING TO POKE N...BUT STILL EAST OF SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. 
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS RAIN WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AS IT BACKS TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT...BUT 
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY AND ANY 
CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS.

PLAN ON RAISING POPS OVERNIGHT.

PLENTY TO CONCERN MYSELF WITH TONIGHT. PROSPECTS FOR SHALLOW COASTAL 
FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY BARES 
WATCHING WITH TIDE DEPARTURES RUNNING 1 1/2 FT ABOVE AT TIME. 
FORECAST IS FOR TIDE DEPARTURES TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT ON 
TUESDAY WHICH WOULD PUT TIDE AT SPRINGMAID PIER JUST OVER 7 FT AND 
WILMINGTON ON CAPE FEAR NEAR 6 FT. HOWEVER...GFS SEEMS TO BE 
UNDERDOING WIND FIELDS AND WITH UP TO 7 TO 10 FT SEAS OUT 
THERE...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY BE UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY WITH FLOW 
EXPECTED TO TURN E OR PERHAPS EVEN SE FOR A TIME TUESDAY 
EVENING.

LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS NORTH ALONG OR SLIGHTLY 
INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. COPIOUS 
AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE STORM. ADDING TO 
THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN NORTH 
AND WEST ALONG INLAND PENETRATING COASTAL TROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY ALL GETTING ABSORBED BY MAIN COASTAL LOW.

AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD EASILY EXCEED 2 OR 3 INCHES...IT REALLY 
DEPENDS ON TRACK OF LOW AND JUXTAPOSITION OF COASTAL TROUGH.
FA COULD STILL STAND A GOOD SOAKING AND SO EVEN 2 OR 3 INCHES OF 
RAIN...PROVIDING IT IS EVENLY SPACED OUT OVER 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD 
SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD FLOOD. HOWEVER...FA ALREADY 
HAS TWO RIVERS...BLACK NEAR KINGSTREE AND CAPE FEAR NEAR 
ELIZABETHTOWN IN MINOR FLOOD. THIS IS FROM DELUGE RECEIVED UPSTREAM 
LAST WEEK. AND SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO HIGHLIGHT 
UPCOMING WEATHER SITUATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH WITH 
THIS PACKAGE. THANKS FOR COLLABORATION CHS.

MARINE: WINDS STILL HOWLING FROM NE 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 
GALE. OMRS REPORTING 15 TO 25 MPH. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS OF 10 AND 11 FT. EXPECT THAT COASTAL 
WATERS FAIRING A LITTLE BETTER WITH 30 DEG WIND DIRECTION. AT ANY 
RATE WILL HIT WIND AND SEAS HARDER IN UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

FCSTID = 27
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
KILM  58 73 64 75 / 70 90 80 30
KLBT  53 61 61 72 / 50 90 80 40
KFLO  55 62 62 73 / 60 90 80 20
KMYR  57 71 66 74 / 60 90 80 30

.ILM...
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

DIGIORGI