479 
FXUS62 KILM 140552
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002

TRICKY FCST AT HAND W/ FRONT TO STALL OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL 
WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SRN STREAM S/WV APPROACHES. THE LOW 
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO OR GULF COAST 
STATES THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUE-WED TIME FRAME. 
FORTUNATELY THE ETA/AVN ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT...AT LEAST UP 
TO 00Z WED... THEN THE AVN RACES DEEPENING LOW OFF TO THE NE WHILE 
THE ETA IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER W/ THE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. IN 
THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOMEWHAT SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS 
THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SURGE BUILDING DOWN 
THE COAST DURING THE DAY. A WEDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS WILL A 
COASTAL TROF TONIGHT. THE PARENT HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST TUE WHILE STRONG LOW-LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FROM 
OFF THE ATLC WILL HELP TO OVERCOME THE WEDGE ALLOWING THE COASTAL 
TROF/OLD FRONT TO PUSH INLAND.

BOTH ETA/AVN SUGGEST COUPLED JET...WHICH IS WHY I AM LEANING TOWARD 
THE STRONGER DETAILS SHOWN IN THE ETA. CONVERGENCE WILL SHARPEN 
ALONG THE COASTAL TROF AND AHEAD OF THE LOW HEADING INTO TUE. 
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE DEEPEST THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS TUE AFTN 
AND...ESP TUE NIGHT. TIME/HGT X-SECTIONS SUGGEST UVV WILL BE 
SHARPEST TUE NIGHT AND W/ PWATS EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1.8 
INCHES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAFL. THE LOW WILL PULL 
AWAY TO THE NE DURING WED...ALLOWING THE RAFL TO COME TO AN END.

FCST FOR TODAY...WILL SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT...HOWEVER MSTR WILL 
LINGER IN THE LOW-LEVELS. WILL HOLD ONTO A SMALL POP (HIGHEST MYR 
ZONES)...ESP ALONG THE COAST W/ THE FRONT IN THE VCNTY THIS MORNING. 
FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE RA CHANCES INCREASING AND WILL GO W/ LIKELY 
POPS MYR ZONES...TAPERED LOWER HEADING NW FROM THAT ZONE GROUPING. 
LOOKS LIKE A CATEGORICAL EVENT TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN AS THE LOW 
EXITS WILL HOLD THE HIGHEST POPS LBT/ILM ZONES WED.

MARINE: SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH WINDS/SEAS 
INTO SCA RANGES TODAY. CURRENT 3 FT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FT SOON 
AFTER DAYBREAK...AND THEN 7 FT BY EARLY AFTN. SEAS WILL REACH 8 FT 
TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TOWARD 5-6 FT AS THE FLOW WEAKENS 
SOMEWHAT AND TURNS EASTERLY TUE. STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR S AND AN 
INLAND STORM TRACK (AS SHOWN ON THE PREFERRED ETA) MEAN A PERIOD OF 
STRONG SE WINDS WHICH WILL PUSH SEAS BACK TOWARD 7 FT RANGE TUE 
NIGHT/WED.

MARINE WIND & SEA ISC GRIDS ARE AVAILABLE IN AWIPS.

FCSTID = 29
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
KILM  68 59 73 64 / 30 50 80 80
KLBT  66 56 67 61 / 10 30 80 80
KFLO  67 57 67 61 / 20 40 80 80
KMYR  69 60 73 66 / 40 60 80 80

.ILM...
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. 
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER. 

PFAFF     - PUBLIC
ARMSTRONG - MARINE