144 
FXUS62 KILM 091746
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT WED OCT 9 2002

QUITE A VARIATION IN CONDITIONS ACROSS ILM CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REACHING UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WHILE WEDGE 
HOLDING INLAND TEMPS TO AROUND 70.  HINT OF A COASTAL TROF 
OFFSHORE...AS WELL AS A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW ALOFT THAT HAS TRIGGERED 
AN AREA OF TSRA OFF SC/GA COAST.  

MODEL INITIALIZATIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR AND NOT TOO FAR OFF TARGET.  
HOWEVER TYPICAL BIASES SHOWING UP AS AVN SHARPENS UP THE COASTAL 
TROF AND KEEPS NE FLOW OVER THE AREA...WHILE ETA IS QUICKER TO PUSH 
IT ONSHORE.  WILL FAVOR THE AVN HOLDING THE WEDGE LONGER IN THE NEAR 
TERM...BUT PREFERENCE DRIFTS TO THE ETA BY SAT AS AVN TOO BULLISH 
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OFF HATTERAS.  

LOOKING AT ABOUT A 10 DEG SPREAD IN DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CWA...AND 
EXPECT SIMILAR TYPE OF SPREAD IN MIN TEMPS TONITE.  BOTH ETA AND AVN 
RUN AN UPPER DISTURBANCE UP THE COAST OVERNITE...SO WILL GO WITH 50 
POPS ALONG THE COAST AND ONLY 30 INLAND.  TEMPS NEAR MAV NUMBERS 
INLAND...BUT HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALONG THE COAST.  

AFTER TONITE FORCING FOR PRECIP IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT...SO WILL KEEP 
POPS IN THE 30-40 RANGE.  THINK THE WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THU.  WILL GO 
70-75 INLAND ZONES TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST.  POSSIBLY BETTER 
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS COASTAL TROF PUSHES ONSHORE THU NIGHT OR FRI.  
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FRI. 

WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE INTO SUN...SO WILL KEEP CHC 
POPS IN THE FORECAST.  WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY NARROW DIURNAL TEMP 
RANGE. 

EXTENDED: FALL WX RETURNS IN EARNEST SUN NIGHT/MON.  MAIN ISSUE 
HINGES ON TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH PRETTY SOLID PUSH FROM 
CANADIAN HIGH PRES.  THE 00Z AVN EXT IS ALMOST A DAY FASTER THAN 
PREVIOUS RUN...AND 10 DEG COOLER ON MON AS A RESULT.  WILL GO ON THE 
HIGH END OF THE ENSEMBLE TEMPS MON AS I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE BETTER 
PUSH OF COOL AIR UNTIL LATE MON.  TUE/WED REASONABLY CLOSE TO MEX 
NUMBERS. 

CWF...AVN TO A BETTER DGREE INDICATES DEVELOPING CSTL TROF TO 
EVENTUALLY PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. AS A 
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE A NE-E WIND FIELD UNTIL THU NIGHT...THEN A 
VEER TO THE SE BY FRI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT SCA MAINLY DUE TO SEAS. 
WILL CONTINUE SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE INTO FRI. PG RELAXES 
LATER FRI AS SFC LOW LIFTS NE...RESULTING IN REDUCED SPEEDS FOR THE 
ILM CSTL WTRS INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND DIR WILL BE TRICKY SAT BUT WILL 
CONTINUE AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTIZE STRONG 
FRNTL BNDRY TO PUSH THRU THE FA SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. RATHER LIGHT SW 
WIND AHEAD OF IT FOR SUN. TIGHT SFC PG AND CAA AFTER FROPA SPELLS 
STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FOR MON.      

FCSTID = 35

KILM  66 80 68 81 /  50 30 40 30
KLBT  60 73 65 80 /  30 30 40 30
KFLO  61 74 66 82 /  30 30 40 30
KMYR  65 79 69 79 /  50 30 40 30

.ILM...
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

PUBLIC: RAS
MARINE: RALF