FXUS66 KPQR 071524
AFDPQR

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT MON OCT 7 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AND
TUESDAY AS SEVERAL VERY WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRUSH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON. A COOLER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A TEMPORARY
RIDGE REBUILDING FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
FLATTENED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER
SYSTEMS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTH. MODELS
CONTINUE KEEP PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH
BUT MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AS EACH DISTURBANCE
DIGS A BIT MORE INTO THE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH BEST
PRECIP CHANCE FROM THIS SYSTEM TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON BRINGING A COOL
UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS AGAIN AGREE ON A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS POKING INTO WASHINGTON
FRIDAY AND OREGON ON SATURDAY. THE ODD MAN OUT IS THE LATEST 00Z GFS
WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
COLUMBIA BASIN ON FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE WEAKER
SOLUTION AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BRUSH WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY AND OREGON ON SUNDAY.

AST 11232  PDX 01121  SLE 00121  EUG 00011

.PQR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.