000 
FXAK67 PAJK 051039
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
245 AM ADT SAT OCT 5 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA
OF MSTR EXTDG FM A TRIPLE PT NR COOK INLET EWD ALG A WRMFNT
THAT EXTDS EWD FM THE TRIPLE PT SEWD THRU THE CNTRL AND
ERN GLFALSK TO JUST W OF CDE. MID AND HI LVL CLDS ARE 
BCMG MORE ENHANCED ACRS THE SRN GLFALSK AS STG SW FLOW ALF
NOW ENTERS THE SRN GLFALSK AND HEADS TWD THE WRMFNTL BNDRY.

ONLY SRN CSTL AREAS CLOSEST TO THE WRMFNTL BNDRY ARE RPTG 
LGT RAIN...HOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR AT BIORKA IS DETECTING A
BROAD AREA OF PCPN ECHOES OFSHR NRN AND CNTRL SE AK EXTDG ONSHR
OVR SRN CSTL SE AK THESE ECHOES ARE MOVG TWD THE ESE.

MODELS ARE IN GENL AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN MODEL INDICATING A 
SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF PCPN ARND THE RGN SAT MRNG AND A 
MORE DEFINED FNTL STRUCTURE EMMANATING FM THE LOW ENTERING
BRISTOL BAY. WRMFNT EXTDG FM THE TRIPLE PT NR COOK INLET
TO THE SE GLFALSK IS FCST TO MOV OVR THE INNER CHNLS OF SRN SE AK
LATER SAT MRNG. THE ASSOC OCFNT NOW IN THE WRN GLFALSK WL 
MOV E TO BE IN THE ERN GLFALSK SAT AFTN.

THEREFORE...OCNL LGT RAIN WL SPRD OVR THE RGN DURG SAT MRNG WITH
THE APCH OF THE WRMFNT. RAIN WL INCRS DURG SAT AFTN AS THE OCFNT 
ENTERS THE ERN GLFALSK. 

WINDS WL INCRS TO GALE FORCE ALG THE ERN GLF CST LATER SAT 
MRNG WITH SCA WNDS SPRDG TO THE OUTER CST OF SE AK. THESE 
SCA WNDS WL EXTD INLD OVR SRN SE AK SAT AFTN. INLD OVR CNTRL 
AND NRN SE AK WNDS WL INCRS BUT WL RMN BLO SCA THRU THE DAY SAT. 


.LONG RANGE...BASED ON HOW THE MODELS INITIALIZED AND COMPARED TO
SATELLITE IMAGERY, I PREFER THE 06Z AVN TO THE 00Z ETA ON
POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  AS THE
WEATHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...
A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.  

THUS EXPECT A COUPLE DAYS OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE ON
SHORE FLOW.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO REBUILD OVER THE
GULF THROUGH MID WEEK BUT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT PROMISING TO CUT
OFF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA.  

A COLD POOL OF AIR WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE BERING AND INTERIOR
OF ALASKA AND LOOKS READY TO PLUNGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON
WEDNESDAY.  MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE BETWEEN -4 TO -10
WORKING ITS WAY IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOWERING OF THE SNOW
LEVEL ON SOME THE PEAKS WITH THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED IN THE
SHORTWAVE DIVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...COULD ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY
OF IT REACHING THE SURFACE AS WELL.  FOR THE MOMENT WILL NOT
VOICE THIS IN THE FORECAST AND LEAVE IT ALL LIQUID...WITH
EXCEPTION I MAY CONSIDER IT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ZONE 24
FOR THE PASSES.


.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...
           AREA 2A
      ...SCA.... NONE
           AREA 1B
           AREA 1A2-CROSS SOUND
           AREA 1A3-SUMNER STRAIT-CLARENCE STRAIT

DED - BMB