181 
FXUS65 KTFX 271504
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2002

UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AND STATE

.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WAS UPSTREAM OF
FORECAST AREA AT 12Z. MODELS LOOK FINE WITH VORTICITY CENTER OVER
ERN OREGON. NRN PORTION OF TROUGH SHOULD CLEAR THE NRN ZONES BY LATE
THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL NOT CLEAR THE FAR SRN ZONES UNTIL SAT
MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. MOIST PLUME IS
OVERUNNING COOL LOW LEVEL AIR BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR SRN
ZONES BY NOONTIME AS VORTICITY CENTER MOVES TOWARDS AREA. AS FAR AS
CHANGES GO...WILL DROP SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT BASED ON CALLS TO SPOTTERS. WILL ADD MOUNTAINS OF FERGUS
COUNTY TO THE SNOW ADVISORY AGAIN BASED ON CALLS TO SPOTTERS AND
LATEST MESOETA QPF FORECAST. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS LOOKS LIKE SNOW
LEVELS RANGE FROM 5000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000
FEET IN THE FAR S. WILL ADD SNOW LEVELS TO THE ZONES. FORECAST
HIGHS LOOK OK BUT WILL RAISE BZN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BLANK

.EXTENDED...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONTANA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINING WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
LINGERS INTO TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RETURN. VILLANI

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF RB 044/032 067/040 068 16+20
    BEEEE 040/049 035/051 039/060 042/057 036 01333311111
CTB RB 043/027 064/036 065 16710
    BEEEE 038/046 031/048 038/056 038/052 029 01333311222
HLN RB 048/033 068/041 071 16830
    BEEBE 040/052 033/054 033/057 037/060 037 01333311111
BZN RB 050/031 064/034 067 16850
    BEEBE 036/051 030/049 029/057 034/058 039 01333311111
WEY RB 048/025 057/028 060 16850
    BEEBE 029/047 023/045 020/052 026/050 035 01333311111
DLN RB 052/032 066/036 068 16840
    BEEBE 037/048 030/051 028/055 035/056 040 01333311111
HVR CB 048/027 066/039 068 16410
    BEEEE 039/049 035/048 034/057 038/057 031 01033311111
LWT RB 043/030 066/037 068 16+20
    BEEEE 037/048 032/048 034/058 040/055 034 01033311111

.TFX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW TODAY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
       5000 FEET FOR THE SRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ALSO
       CASCADE JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS COUNTIES (ZONES
       48/12/50/51).