577 FXUS66 KOTX 160933 AFDGEG EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 230 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2002 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROF AND PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM (THRU WED). WAVE MOVG E/NEWD INTO NEVADA ATTM WL REMAIN TO MY S, AND WE WL TAKE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP OVR THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA. FOCUS THUS SHIFTS TO THE TROF AND FRONTAL BAND MOVG INTO NW WA ATTM. ETA QPF SEEMS TO DOING GOOD VS KATX 88D AND SFC OBS, AND WL FOLLOW ITS FCST OF A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE CASCADES INTO NE WA TODAY. AS THIS FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS, A FAST-MOVING WAVE BEGINS TO SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CASCADES AND INTO ERN WA OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BENEATH STRONG JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN LEFT EXIT OF SPEED MAX. STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF 850-700MB FLOW WILL SOMEWHAT SHADOW THE BASIN ZONES, BUT INCREASE PRECIP OVER NE WA AND N ID. AMOUNT OF LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY WL MEAN LIKELY PRECIP ERN WA, AND CATEGORICAL FOR THE MTNS OF N ID THRU TUES. DRIER WLY FLOW WL MEAN ONLY ISOLD SHRA NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND N ID MTNS TUES NT. RISING HTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING FOR DRY WX WED, WITH TEMPS WARMING. EXTENDED (THU-SUN)... QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS DIMINISHING ESPECIALLY IN THE BASIN. THEN RIDGING WITH DRYING AND A LITTLE WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST. LATEST MRF PUTS RIDGE FARTHER WEST EXPOSING THE AREA TO COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AND POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. THIS IS A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. WONT CHANGE THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BASED ON ONE MRF MODEL RUN ESPECIALLY WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE. TC ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 075/050/064/046/071 -6710 COE 074/049/064/042/070 16710 PUW 073/050/064/043/071 04620 LWS 079/057/069/052/077 -2520 CQV 077/049/066/044/076 37811 SPT 074/047/061/044/069 27930 WWP 069/047/054/046/067 16+51 EAT 077/057/072/051/076 -2300 MWH 078/051/070/048/075 02300 .OTX...NONE.