536 
FXUS61 KCAR 141924
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
324 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT: BOTH ETA AND AVN SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 9Z. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION.

SUNDAY: WILL GO CATEGORICAL FOR RAIN IN ALL AREAS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SLOWLY AND WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT: WILL END RAIN IN NORTH BUT KEEP LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. ETA AND AVN CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH
TIMING THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

MONDAY: CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS TAIL END OF RAIN LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO COMBINATION OF MAV/ETA NUMBERS FOR FIRST FOUR
PERIODS FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN MOST AREAS DUE TO THIS SYSTEM
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME CLOUDS IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE
TO THIS WEAK SYSTEM BUT NO PRECIPITATION. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH SHOULD CREST OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD CONTROL WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE INTO
SATURDAY. GEM IS MUCH SLOWER THAN MRF IN MOVING IN PRECIPITATION...SO USING
A COMBINATION OF BOTH MODELS WILL HOLD OF SHOWERS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.


.COASTAL WATERS...A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.CAR...NONE.

MIGNONE