841 
FXUS63 KLBF 010602
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
101 AM CDT SUN SEP 01 2002

TEMPS MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ACROSS 
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EARLY MORNING WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES 
RIPPLING ACROSS FA.  MODELS NOT DOING TO BAD WITH INITIALIZATION AND 
WILL USE A BLEND OF MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST.

SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES INTO FA BY LATE MORNING AND ALIGNS ITSELF 
ALONG A KONL TO KMCK LINE BY EARLY EVENING.  DOWNSLOPE WINDS BEHIND 
TROUGH WILL BRING A FAIRLY WARM DAY TO REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S 
EXPECTED.  NEXT WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS AREA DURING THE LATE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH 70-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET OVER AREA.  
WITH WEAK CAPPING EXPECTED ALONG TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE... ANTICIPATE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO 
ALLOW FOR GOOD CELL ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

STRONG CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THEN HELPS TO PUSH A COLD 
FRONT ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THIS SHOULD PUSH 
ANY SIGN OF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF FA AND BRING A 
DRY DAY FOR LBF CWA.  LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE LOWER 
80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S FAR SOUTHEAST.

FRONT THEN BEGINS TO PULL BACK NORTH ACROSS FA LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER 
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING 
TROUGH ALONG WEST COAST.  MILDLY CONCERNED WITH PRECIP THREAT 
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT BUT APPEARS AS THOUGH NOSE OF LLJ 
WILL BE WELL NORTH OF FA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT NOCTURNAL PRECIP 
THREAT.  WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP THREAT AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER DAY 
CREW WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE TO SEE IF MENTION OF PRECIP IS NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.LBF...NONE.

AWJ