519 
FXUS61 KCAR 291839
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
236 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO
THE DOWNEAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE ON FRIDAY...AND PASS OFF THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO
MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
AS WELL STATED BY MIDNIGHT CREW...MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
HOW FAR N WILL RAFL GET. DECIDED TO LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE AVN AS IT HAS BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT. WILL LEAN LOWER ON THE QPF HOWEVER. -RAFL CURRENTLY
OVER S NEW ENG W/EXTREME FAR N EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD INTO PWM-PSM AREA PER
LATEST RDR IMAGERY. MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO BE ALF W/DRY AIR IN LOW-MID
LVLS. I BELIEVE THIS WILL CHG OVER DOWNEAST AREAS IN TIME.

TONIGHT: WILL GO AHEAD & SHOOT FOR LIKELY POPS FOR DOWNEAST AREAS. AM
CONSIDERING PUSHING POPS IN CAT RANGE FOR BHB-EPO AREAS. I DID NOTICE A
30-35 KT SPEED MAX OVER S NEW ENG PER 12Z UA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE RAFL. WILL DECIDE AFT FURTHER ASSESSMENT. CLDS PUSHING ALL THE WAY
N. THICKEST SHIELD OVER CNTL/DOWNEAST AREAS. WILL SHOOT FOR SCT-BKN N & OVC
DOWNEAST AREAS. MINS WILL REFLECT MAV NUMBERS.

FRI: SFC LOW MOVES NE THRU THE GULF OF ME WHILE COLD FRONT FCST TO
SLIDE SE ACRS THE AREA BY FRI AFTN. N & CNTL AREAS. UPPER TROF & WEAK
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCD W/THE FRONT. MIGHT HAVE ENUF FORCING TO TRIGGER
SCTD SHRA ESP FAR N. ADDED SCTD SHRA FOR N. DOWNEAST/CST SHOULD SEE RAFL
ENDING BY MIDDAY. N WINDS WILL KEEP MAXES DOWN SOME. I LEANED A NOTCH ABV
GUID ESP FM HUL ON S. SOME CLDS ARND ACROSS ZNS 1>4 WILL KEEP THINGS
COOLER.

FRI NIGHT: SHOULD SEE CLRG TREND & COOLER READINGS. DWPTS FCST TO FALL OFF
IN TEH MID/UPPER 30S ACRS THE N WHILE FURTHER S...DWPTS PROGGED TO BE 40
TO 45 AS THAT COOL DRY AIR DRAINS S ACROSS THE CWFA. WILL SHOW UPPER 30S
ACRS COOLER LOCALES (ST. JOHN VLY) AS WINDS DECOUPLE AS STG CAN HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SAT: A BANNER DAY W/PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN PRVS DAYS
ESP DOWNEAST AREAS W/RETURN FLOW ARND THE HIGH BRINGING COOLER AIR IN OFF
THE OCEAN.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT: THINGS REMAINING DRY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. AS A
MATTER OF FACT...IT LOOKS DRY INTO MON AS STG HIGH PRES REMAINS IN
CONTROL AS FAR AS LATEST UKMET/AVN WERE SHOWING. I HAVE BACKED ANY MENTION
OF PRECIP OFF TIL LATE TUE AS FRONTAL SYSM AND UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVE TOWARD
THE CWFA.

.COASTAL WATERS...
NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PKG. GRADIENT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL
TIGHTEN SOME AS THAT STG HIGH BUILDS E ACROS THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY.
WINDS TO INC TO 15-20 LATE FRI W/SEAS REACHING 4 FT. WILL SEE THINGS RELAX
AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ON SAT.

.CAR...NONE.

JAH