000 
FXUS64 KLIX 272017 CCA
AFDNEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO DIRECTION OF LOW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA 
215 PM CDT TUE AUG 27 2002

THE TEMPORARY BREAK FROM EVERYDAY CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY COME TO 
AN END BY THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM PENSACOLA TO 
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH TO ATCHAFALAYA BAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUE PLOTS WERE LESS THAN 1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH 1.7 
INCHES TO THE WEST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AT 5H SHOWED A CLOSED LOW 
OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS. THROUGH 48 
HOURS...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO FILL AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTH ALABAMA BY 
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS/NEW 
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A 
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. H2O 
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 1.2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST OVER THE LOWER 
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE SLOWLY OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA. H2O VALUES WILL INCREASE UP TO 1.8 BY SATURDAY AS 
THE SHEAR AXIS OF THE DECAYING LOW MOVES WEST ACROSS THE THE 
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR THURSDAY BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW 
CLIMO POPS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL BECOME EASTERLY 
FRIDAY...WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO FOR FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND WEST...CREATING A 
DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH 
LABOR DAY...POPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. 

HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS TO PONDER...

MCB 67/93/67/92 0002
BTR 70/93/70/92 0002
MSY 74/93/74/91 0002
GPT 71/92/70/90 0003

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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