712 
FXUS61 KCAR 260615
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
215 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
CANADA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
FCST WILL REFLECT AVN/ETA SOLN THRU 48 HR TIME FRAME. THIS BASED ON 00Z UA
AND WHAT SATL IMAGERY WAS SHOWING W/CLDS DECK & -SHRA ACTIVITY MOVG SE
THRU WRN QUEBEC.

TDA: WILL START THINGS OUT SUNNY & THEN BRING CLDS IN AS COLD FRONT APCHS.
BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS N OF THE BORDER. HOWEVER...SOME CONVERGENCE ALG
THE FRONT & DECENT INSOLATION BEFORE CLD COVER COULD LEAD TO SOME WDLY
SCTD -SHRA MAINLY ACRS FAR N. BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO
150-200 J/KG LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG. DECIDED TO THROW THIS IN FOR
ZNS 1>3 AS I SPLIT THEM OUT BASED ON THIS THINKING. TEMPS WILL REFLECT
CLOSER TO MAV GUID. WILL SEE WINDS 15-20 MPH THIS AFTN.

TNGT: WILL START OUT W/SCT-BKN CONDS & EVNG -SHRA ACRS FAR N & THEN I
BELIEVE MO CLR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO MOVE E FROM CAN.
WILL HOLD MINS UP AS PRES GRDNT SHOULD REMAIN. THEREFORE...WENT A TAD
ABV THE GUID ACROSS THE BOARD.

TUE: HIGH TO SLOWLY MIGRATE E TOWARD THE CWFA. NWLY FLOW SETTING UP W/CAA
IN PLACE. WILL SPLIT THE GUID ON MAXES AS I BELIEVE DOWNSLOPING WILL OFFSET
CAA SOME. WILL GO W/WINDS 10-20 ACRS THE N & 10-15 MPH DOWNEAST WAY.


FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATER IN THE WEEK THURSDAY: WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS
BEYOND TUE NGT TIME FRAME. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTROL THE WX
ACROSS THE NE U.S.. AREA OF LOW PRES PROGGED BY LONG RANGE MDLS ESP AVN TO
BE OFF S NEW ENG CST LATE WED INTO THU. LOOKS AS THOUGH RAFL WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE W/THIS SYSM. LATEST CAN GLOBAL/EURO MDLS INDICATE SYSM TO WEAKEN &
MOVE FURTHER AWAY. DRY WX INTO FRI. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS COLD FRONT
DROPPING S ACROSS CWFA ON FRI. MIGHT SEE SOME SHRA W/THIS FRONT. DAYCREW CAN
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS W/LATER MDL RUNS.

.COASTAL WATERS...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILL GO W BECMG SW TNGT & THEN
WINDS BECMG NW ON TUE W/FROPA. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE DIR BECMG MORE NLY AS
CAN HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE N OF THE AREA.

.CAR...NONE.

HEWEY