888 
FXUS65 KTFX 250308
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
910 PM MDT SAT AUG 24 2002

UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AND STATE

.SHORT TERM...NGM/ETA INITIALIZATIONS LOOK OK WITH VORTICITY CENTER
NE OF BAKER OREGON AT 00Z. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING IN
VORTICITY CENTER INTO SW MT OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH GOING ON
OVER SW MT AS OF 03Z AM RELUCTANT TO DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
WITH VORTICITY CENTER MOVING INTO THAT AREA LATER. WILL HOWEVER
DROP POPS TO 20 PCT. FARTHER N WILL LEAVE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS LATEST RUC
CONTINUES TO KEEP AIRMASS UNSTABLE THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL
HOWEVER DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR N CENTRAL MT AS AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO BE STABLE THERE. BLANK

.EXTENDED...PATTERN OVERALL LOOKS UNSETTLED. UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NW
NV OR SW ID AT 12Z WED SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NE THE REMAINDER OF WED
THROUGH THU. ON FRI AVN/ECWMF HAVE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. 00Z AVN BROUGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH INTO THE AREA ON SAT BUT
LATEST AVN SUGGESTS PREVIOUS SOLUTION COULD BE A LITTLE FAST. IN
COORDINATION CALL GGW/BIL HAD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WED AND THU WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT. THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA EXCEPT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR SAT IN THE WRN ZONES WITH POSSIBLE APPROACH OF
NEXT UPPER TROUGH. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST 1000/500 MB THICKNESSES. BLANK

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF TT 053/080 053/078 050 14332
    TEBBB 075/050 074/050 077/050 078/050 078 33422222112
CTB TT 049/079 050/075 048 14232
    TBBBB 071/044 072/045 075/045 075/045 075 33411221112
HLN BT 052/079 052/077 050 14422
    TEBBB 073/050 076/050 080/050 081/050 081 33422222111
BZN BB 044/078 044/076 043 14422
    TEBBB 073/046 075/045 079/045 080/045 080 23333322112
WEY BB 033/073 035/071 035 14322
    TEBBB 070/038 070/036 072/036 074/036 074 23333332112
DLN BT 046/077 045/074 043 14322
    TEBBB 072/044 074/045 078/045 079/045 079 33333321112
HVR BT 052/085 054/082 052 14223
    TEEBB 078/052 079/052 081/050 082/050 082 33422222111
LWT TB 050/077 050/075 048 14432
    TEEBB 072/048 072/050 076/049 077/049 077 23322233111=

.TFX...NONE.