941 
FXUS61 KCAR 222159
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
559 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2002

.UPDATED...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED
OUT OF NORTHWEST AND EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE
THE AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE TONIGHT PERIOD FOR ZONE 2. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS.

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NW AND EXITING THE COAST AROUND 07Z OR SO. WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...SO THE HEAVIEST SLUG
OF RAIN WILL MISS MAINE. FORECAST RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD BASED ON
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. RAIN ALREADY ENDING OVER THE FAR NW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FROM NW TO SE. CLEARING WILL OCCUR 2-3 HOURS AFTER RAIN
ENDS...SO BY 12Z MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL REGION WHERE SOME MID/HI CLOUDS WILL LINGER. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SAT WHICH WILL PRODCUE A VERY NICE DAY.
CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SAT NIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON
SAT AS WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN.

IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SAT NIGHT AND THEN MOVE NE TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. THE DISAGREEMENT IS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. AVN CONTINUES
TO LIKE THIS SYSTEM AND INTENSIFIES IT CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH.
CANADIAN/ECMWF WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER TROUGH. WE WILL USE
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH WOULD FROECAST A WEAKER LOW. IN ANY EVENT...
SHOWERS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUN...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COASTAL
AREA DURING SAT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MON AND DRY
WEATHER NOW EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED ALONG EAST COAST.

NO BIG DISCREPANCIES IN SHORT TERM MOS TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT WILL
FAVOR COOLER NUMBERS FRI NIGHT WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AND THEN WARMER NUMBERS FOR SAT. STEEP POP GRADIENT TONIGHT AS RAIN ENDS
OVER THE AREA. GO FROM ZERO IN THE FAR NW TO CATEGORICAL ELSEWHERE.

COASTAL WATERS: EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. WILL TREND LOWER
THAN AVN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON AS WE EXPECT A WEAKER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF MAINE/MARITIMES.

.CAR...NONE.

DW