000 
FXUS65 KSLC 220922
AFDSLC

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 AM MDT THU AUG 22 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  A MILD
AND GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW STILL OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL REMAIN A
THORN IN THE SIDE OF THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
WOBBLE...STRETCH...AND CONTRACT...BUT GENERALLY STAY CENTERED ON
ITS CURRENT LOCATION.

TWO AREAS WORTH WATCHING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  ONE AREA IS
THE FAR ERN SECTIONS OF UTAH WHERE SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
NOT A LOT UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION HERE...BUT WITH A SURFACE IN
THE AREA...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING COULD EASILY SEE
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY NE UT.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW WILL LAY OUT ACROSS NE NV/ERN ID/EXTREME NW UT.
INCREASING JET SUPPORT LATE TODAY COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
INTO THE THERMAL BOUNDARY TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND GENERATE
SOME CONVECTION.  RIGHT NOW WOULD EXPECT MOST OF WHAT ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS TO REMAIN OVER NV AND ID...BUT SOME OF THIS WILL SPILL
INTO OUR EXTREME NRN ZONES BY THIS EVENING.

MODELS FROM THE 00Z RUN STILL HOLDING ON TO THE IDEA OF ROTATING A
SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY LOBE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
WRN/NRN UT FRIDAY.  THIS LOBE WILL SERVE TO PULL THE RATHER
STUBBORN PARENT LOW E-NE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY.  DYNAMICS
ALONG WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO WORK ON LIMITED MOISTURE AND GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE
PRECIP FOR SOME OF THE NRN/CNTRL ZONES.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
MAY CATCH SOME OF THE FAR NRN ZONES...BUT SUSPECT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE IN ERN ID/WRN WY AND POINTS NORTH.

WITH THE JET AXIS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
HEIGHTS...WILL LOOK FOR PERIODIC MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND STATIC TEMPS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.  EUROPEAN AND MRF MODELS DIVERGE A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THEIR TREATMENT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.  THE MRF MAINTAINS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF UTAH LATE MONDAY.
THE EUROPEAN MODELS IN CONTRAST ARE WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THE DECAYING SHORTWAVE.  PREFER THE MRF SOLUTION...THOUGH THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE END MAY BE ONE OF SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TEMPS AND
LITTLE PRECIP.

MRF OUT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK MAY OFFER UP A MINI-MONSOONAL
SURGE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.  THE EVENT...IF THERE...WOULD
PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE WESTERLIES BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

SLC -12  CDC 000  CONGER

.SLC...NONE.