227 
FXUS61 KCAR 190002
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2002

...UPDATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO FORM IN QUEBEC JUST WEST OF THE MAINE BORDER
AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF WARM AIR CONTINUES FLOW IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
POPS WERE INCREASED UP TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.


.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A LARGER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON IS
RESULTING IN SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
MAINES WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS EAST EARLY
THIS EVENING PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A FEW SPOTS. THE
HEAVIEST STORMS WILL PROBABLY WANT TO RUN ALONG A LINE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES
WHERE A PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. LATER THIS
EVENING THE STORMS WILL TAPER OFF AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRYER AIR...THOUGH A
FEW STRONG CELLS MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE IT INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW
BRUNSWICK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THROUGH MID WEEK AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE WARM THIS
COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL LIMIT THE
WARMTH A BIT SO THE COMING WEEK WILL LIKELY BE NOT AS HOT AS LAST WEEK.

LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE MAY BE APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH
THE AVN/MRF AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A STEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WESTERN US.
ENERGY IS PROGGED TO CASCADE SOUTHEAST OFF THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A LOW
FORMING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. IF THESE TWO MODELS ARE RIGHT...AN EAST COAST
STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO NORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A SIMILAR THEME BUT IS A LITTLE UNSURE ABOUT
WHICH OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES COMING OFF THE WESTERN RIDGE MAY CREATE THE
EAST COAST LOW. NEVERTHELESS...A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
APPEARS A GOOD POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEKEND.

COASTAL WATERS: NO HEADLINES.

.CAR...NONE.

MCB