670 
FXUS62 KILM 180505
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
100 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2002

WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK VORT 
LOBE MOVG OFF THE COAST...TO AFFECT THE FA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 
AFTN. ENUF TO GET THINGS GOING...POSSIBLY EARLIER THAN SAT. SFC CONV 
IN THE FORM A TROF AND A WEAK SEA-BREEZE TO AID LOW LEVELS TODAY. 
WILL GO WITH 40 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE 
COAST EARLY AND THEN INLAND MID-LATE AFTN AND EVENG. SOMEWHAT DRIER 
AIR WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA ON MON...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SFC 
FEATURES. WILL CONTINUE 30 POPS. SHULD ALSO SEE HIER MAX TEMPS MON 
THAN TODAY...AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GIVEN LESS PCPN AND HIER 
THICKNESSES. FOR TUE...INTRODUCTION OF FRNTL BNDRY SAGGING SWRD AND 
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN ATM PROFILE. IN ADDITION UPPER DIFLUENCE 
MORE PREVALENT. SHULD SEE A BETTER CONVERGENCE TUE THEN MON...AND 
WILL CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO WED AS FRNT LOOKS TO BECOME NEARLY 
STATIONARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF FA. NOT SURE HOW FAR S FRNT WILL GO 
BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL EITHER GO ISOLATED POPS THU AND FRI OR NONE 
AT ALL AS UPPER RDG BECOMES MORE OF A PLAYER TO DETER CONVECTION.  

CWF...SW WIND DIR AIDED BY INLAND TROF TODAY THRU MON...AND AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRNT TUE AND WED. MAY GO VARIABLE OR INTRODUCE AN ONSHORE 
FLOW WED INTO THU. SFC PG THE TIGHTEST TODAY AND MON AND RELAXES 
THEREAFTER. AS A RESULT...BEST WIND SPEEDS THRU MON. SEAS TO FOLLOW 
SUIT.  
 
FCSTID = 11
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

ILM   90  74  92  73 /  40  40  30  30
LBT   90  71  92  71 /  40  40  30  30
FLO   91  72  93  72 /  40  40  30  30
MYR   87  75  89  74 /  40  40  30  30

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RALF