332 
FXUS65 KTFX 150245
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
845 PM MDT WED AUG 14 2002

.SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER POPS AND TO ADJUST
WORDING. SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH RADAR
INDICATING ONLY A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN CHOUTEAU AND HILL
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA MOVING TOWARD THE CWA SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
TONIGHT. DRY THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. EMANUEL

.EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR
DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING BACKING FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AS AN UPPER
TROF CARVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS. DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE PERIOD
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BE 044/073 044/062 040 10400
    BBBBB 068/040 072/043 076/046 074/046 074 33011111211
CTB BW 040/068 038/057 036 10522
    BBBBB 065/037 068/042 073/046 071/046 072 43011111211
HLN BE 051/078 047/069 044 10200
    BBBBB 074/040 076/044 077/044 075/044 075 22011111211
BZN BB 043/080 043/075 041 10000
    BBBBB 075/038 077/040 077/044 075/044 075 00011111111
WEY BB 034/075 038/070 036 10000
    BBBBB 070/035 072/037 073/038 071/038 071 00011111111
DLN BB 046/078 046/073 042 10000
    BBBBB 075/038 077/040 078/042 076/042 076 00011111111
HVR BW 044/070 040/057 038 10622
    BBBBB 068/040 073/044 077/047 076/047 076 44011111211
LWT BE 043/072 041/063 039 10500
    BBBBB 068/039 072/043 075/045 074/045 074 33011111211=

.TFX...NONE.