326 
FXUS65 KTFX 131509
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
905 AM MDT TUE AUG 13 2002

.SHORT TERM...MINOR CHANGES PLANNED. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...SO WILL CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO
SUNNY FROM GREAT FALLS NORTH AND WEST. WILL ALSO BUMP WINDS UP ABOUT
5 MPH. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS AT 00Z. OTHER THAN THAT THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MEIER

.EXTENDED...WILL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THE AVN IS
SHOWING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE TEMPS AND LOWER
POPS FRIDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BY SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA...WHILE THE AVN IS MUCH SLOWER. IF AVN SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER. HOWEVER...WILL NOT BITE ON
THIS YET...SINCE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY. VILLANI

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BN 083/056 085/049 069 16002
    EBBBB 044/076 046/073 044/076 043/075 043 22211111111
CTB BN 080/054 076/046 065 16002
    EBBBB 038/072 042/072 042/072 042/073 042 22211222211
HLN BB 086/053 086/053 080 16001
    BBBBB 048/082 049/076 044/072 044/072 044 11111111111
BZN BB 082/045 084/047 080 16000
    BBBBB 045/080 046/075 040/071 040/071 040 00111111111
WEY BB 078/038 080/038 075 16000
    BBBBB 040/076 041/071 035/068 035/068 035 00111111111
DLN BN 080/046 083/049 079 16000
    BBBBB 046/080 047/075 042/077 042/077 042 00111111111
HVR BN 085/055 082/047 071 16003
    EBBBB 048/078 049/074 045/075 045/075 045 32211111111
LWT BB 080/052 081/049 071 16002
    EBBBB 043/076 045/073 045/073 045/073 045 22211111111=

.TFX...NONE.