047 
FXUS61 KCAR 081843
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
230 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2002

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERNMOST MAINE. THE WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS WARM AND HUMID AIR
FLOWS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO
BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS OVER THE FAR N WILL LINGER
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT. COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THE NE THIS EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE FRI WHICH WILL PRODUCE A VERY NICE DAY ON FRI. WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE SOME CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA DURING SAT AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE
REGION EARLY ON SUN. WEAK SHORT WAVE/SURFACE FRONT COULD TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON MON...BUT WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO
MID WEEK. NEXT DECENT COLD FRONT APPEARS ON THE HORIZON FOR WED NIGHT/THU
TIME FRAME.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH 40S
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTH. SHORT TERM MOS GUIDANCE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A LITTLE ABOVE ON SAT. AVN MOS REALISTICALLY CAPTURES
WARM AIRMASS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.


COASTAL WATERS...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED NEXT 5 DAYS.

.CAR...NONE

GABRIC