903 
FXUS61 KCAR 081745
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
145 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2002

.UPDATED...WEAK VORT TROUGH ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND A
SURFACE TROUGH HAVE COMBINED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. WILL UPDATE THERE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND INCLUDE
SPRINKLES. FOR THE DOWNEAST ZONES...MID LEVEL WARMING HAS CAPPED ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SO WILL UPDATE THERE TO DROP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT
PUSH NORTH LATE SATURDAY AS WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL POOL OF COOL AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD POOL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
OFF THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THE AIR MAY BE JUST UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A THUNDERSHOWER IN THE DOWNEAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL SWING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND LOW PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. DIFFERENTIAL
ADVECTION INVOLVING A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COMING UP THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN MAINE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BREAK FOR SOME
HAZY SUNSHINE WITH A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BRING A
SUNNY...VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER TO SOME SPOTS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

COASTAL WATERS...NO HEADLINES TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON FRIDAY.

.CAR...NONE

DW