160 
FXUS63 KABR 070932 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
430 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE ON THU INTO FRI.

CURRENTLY MDLS SHOW UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL US WITH A 
TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY SFC LOW LOCATED 
OVER NW SD WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT. CONDITIONS WILL 
BE WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA TODAY WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING 
RATHER TIGHT ACROSS THE STATE. MDLS ARE PRETTY MUCH ALL IN AGREEMENT 
WITH NEXT SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU AFTERNOON 
INTO FRI MORNING. TEND TO GO WITH THE AVN AS LIKE TIMING AND 
PLACEMENT SLIGHTLY BETTER. AVN SHOWS SFC FRONT ACROSS WRN SD BY 00Z 
THURSDAY AND ALMOST THRU SD BY 12Z FRI. HAVE INCLUDED POPS IN WRN 
ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL CWA BY THU NIGHT. HAVE ALSO 
INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR ERN COUNTIES FOR FRI MORNING 
AS FRONT TRACKS EAST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT 
BUT FEEL THAT DEWPOINTS WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS AVN SHOWS. WITH 
UPPER LVL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA FRI INTO SAT FEEL WINDS 
WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON...AND KEEP 
MOISTURE IN THE AREA AS UPPER 60 DEG DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE JUST SOUTH 
OF THE CWA ON FRI. AS LOW TRACKS ACROSS STATE...HAVE INCLUDED 
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. ALTHOUGH...DYNAMICS LOOK 
BETTER IN ND...FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME PRECIP 
ACROSS CWA.  AS FOR EXTENDED...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO MOVE 
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS SUN INTO MON...BUT WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO 
EXT AT THIS TIME. 

.ABR...NONE

ALBRECHT