525 FXUS65 KGGW 040845 AFDGGW NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 245 AM MDT SUN AUG 4 2002 .SHORT TERM... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO E MT THIS MORNING. UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN HAS SET UP ACROSS MT AS A TROF HAS LOCKED ITSELF INTO POSITION OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... PUTTING MT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE STREAM INTO THE AREA TODAY TO PROVIDE ALL BUT THE SE ZONES A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SE ZONES LOOK TO BE CAPPED FOR AWHILE TODAY... BUT UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BREAK THIS CAP BY THIS EVENING FOR A LIKELIHOOD BY THE EVENING HOURS. SPC/S SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CWA... CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED. WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SE ZONES TODAY...TEMPS SHOULD CRACK THE MID 80S THERE...WHILE MUCH COOLER READINGS (60S) WILL BE FOUND CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. CONTINUED SW UPPER FLOW IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE RULE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANYTIME. TOO TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY TIMING AT THIS POINT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY...BUT MARGINAL THEREAFTER. WILL PUT UP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE FOR LATER PERIODS. .LONG TERM... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW REIGNS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A TROF IN SOME FORM (EITHER OPEN OR CLOSED) MOVING EAST INTO THE VICINITY BY FRIDAY. ECMWF THE WEAKEST OF THE BUNCH WITH THE OTHER MODELS MUCH STRONGER. WILL RE-INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. TEMPS COULD BE A BIT COOLER (AS CONFIDENCE IS LACKING) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH WARM AIRMASS INTO SD. GGW TTB /071 058/088 062/092 7664333 BBBB 062/091 062/090 059/074 057/084 053/ 76333333000 KGDV TTB /086 064/096 063/092 7646333 BBBB 063/092 063/091 060/082 057/085 055/ 76333333000 .GGW...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.