364 
FXUS65 KMSO 021854
AFDMSO

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1253 PM MDT FRI AUG 2 2002

.SHORT TERM...CU POPPING ACROSS THE NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY HAS INCHED A
BIT EAST OF THE MT/ID BORDER. AIR MASS STILL LOOKS PRETTY DRY...BUT
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPARENTLY A LITTLE SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND IN PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...WILL INTRO
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES AS WELL. SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH STILL NO THREAT FOR PRECIP IN
BUTTE AND SALMON AREAS. NEED TO ALSO BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA.  DICKSON

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING A TROUGH WEST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF BEGINS TO REBOUND HEIGHTS A BIT QUICKER
THAN COOLER MRF. PREFER WARMER ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE WORDING FOR MON/TUE/WED. MSJ

.MSO...RED FLAG WARNING ZONES 110 AND 111 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
       EVENING (DEERLODGE/WEST BEAVERHEAD...EAST BEAVERHEAD).

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB BBB /082 042/082 047/081 3510001
     BBBU 048/078 048/079 049/080 049/084 049/ 35221212100
FCA BUB /077 041/078 045/077 3510012
     BBBU 045/074 046/075 047/078 047/082 047/ 35221212100
POL BUB /078 050/079 051/078 3500012
     BBBU 050/076 050/077 051/079 051/083 051/ 35221212100
MSO UUB /083 042/083 048/081 3500012
     BBBU 047/077 048/079 049/080 049/083 049/ 35121212100
HMM UUB /082 041/083 046/082 3500012
     BBBU 047/078 046/080 047/081 047/084 047/ 35121212100
BTM BBB /081 038/081 044/079 3500122
     BBBB 044/074 045/075 045/077 046/079 046/ 35121212100
ORO BUB /083 050/088 056/085 3500001
     BBBU 053/082 054/083 055/085 056/087 056/ 35110212100
GRV UUB /079 044/083 049/080 3500012
     BBBU 048/077 049/078 050/080 051/082 051/ 35111212100
SMN UBB /084 041/085 048/081 3500122
     BBBB 046/078 047/079 047/081 048/083 048/ 35121212100