179 
FXUS66 KLOX 311005
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2002

OVERALL...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER FLOW REMAINS
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DRIFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME
MODELS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE 600 MB...WHICH SHOULD 
RESULT IN NO PRECIP THREAT FOR THE MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY...AS THE 
RIDGE WEAKENS...UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL PUSH 
MONSOON MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ONLY SHORT TERM 
PROBLEM IS THE MARINE LAYER. MODELS INDICATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN STRENGTH.
WITH UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING...WILL EXPECT SOME SLIGHT MARINE LAYER
DEEPENING...WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOME STRATUS/FOG INTO LOWER COASTAL
VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL EXPECT NEAR PERSISTENCE
TODAY/THURSDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING ON FRIDAY.

FOR EXTENDED...MRF/ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH SAGGING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND CONTINUE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH THIS PATTERN...ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT. HOWEVER...WILL 
EXPECT RATHER WIDESPREAD MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LAX 000. THOMPSON.

.LOX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).