807 
FXUS65 KTFX 272055
AFDTFX

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 27 2002

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING. EXCEPTION
COULD BE N CENTRAL MT WHERE MODELS FORECAST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO
KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER RH OVER THAT AREA AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR N CENTRAL MT ALL NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THAT AREA SUN. ALTHOUGH AVN/ETA HAVE SOME QPF FOR
THE AREA SUN MORNING HAVE OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
INCREASING NW FLOW SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND BECOME WSW ON
TUE. FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE
PLAINS THOUGH HIGH WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY. AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
BE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION. SHOULD NOTE THAT THE ETA DEVELOPS SOME QPF NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MT ON TUE WHEREAS THE AVN IS DRY
THERE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE AVN DEVELOPS SOME QPF OVER THE NW
MOUNTAINS ON TUE WHEREAS THE ETA IS DRY THERE. DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND TO KEEP FROM POSSIBLE YO YOING WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FORECAST. BLANK

.EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES THE TREND OF COOLER
TEMPS ALONG WITH RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS.  A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY
UNSETTLED. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE ZONES.  THIS
WILL SET UP EAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
MODERATE...AND KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. ZELZER


.CCF NUMBERS
GTF NN 052/078 054/080 053 04200
    NBBEE 081/053 080/050 080/052 082/054 085 00111112233
CTB NN 050/076 053/077 052 04100
    NBBEE 077/050 078/050 080/050 080/052 082 00011112233
HLN BU 052/081 054/083 054 04200
    BBBEE 083/055 082/050 080/052 082/054 085 00111112233
BZN BU 046/078 047/080 047 04200
    UBBEE 080/048 080/048 080/050 080/052 084 00011112233
WEY BU 038/072 040/075 040 04200
    UBBEE 075/045 074/045 076/048 077/048 078 00011112233
DLN BU 045/077 046/080 047 04100
    UBBEE 080/048 080/048 080/050 080/052 084 00011112233
HVR NN 052/079 053/082 053 04310
    NBBEE 084/054 082/050 080/052 085/054 086 00011112233
LWT BB 049/075 050/077 050 04300
    BBBEE 079/051 078/048 078/050 080/051 082 00111112233

.TFX...NONE.