328 
FXUS62 KILM 241428 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1028 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2002

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WARM AND MOIST ACROSS CAROLINAS WITH AREA 
SOUNDINGS INDICATING PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AGAIN THIS AFTN AND CURRENT POPS LOOK 
GOOD.

FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD ALTHOUGH PEAKS OF SUN COULD 
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAXES. NOT PLANNING AN UPDATE THIS 
PACKAGE. 

CWF: SW FLOW CONTINUES AND FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. CHANGES...IF ANY WILL 
BE MINIMAL.

PJN

PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS:
********************************************************************
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THRU THE END OF THE 
WEEK. WEAK TROFFINESS ALOFT TO ALSO CONTINUE. SFC FRNT TO DROP A BIT 
FURTHER S AND STALL N AND W OF THE FA. WEAK VORTS TO ROTATE ACROSS 
THE FA FROM THE S AND SW. SOME NOT DISCERNABLE BY THE MODELS...MAY 
HAVE TO RELY ON SAT IMAGERY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF HIGHEST POPS 
CURRENT THRU THU...THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THERE-AFTER. FLOW ALOFT 
SHARPENS A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE 
...MODELS PUSH PLUME OF MOISTURE AND SFC FRNT EAST OF THE 
FA...LOWERING CHCS FOR PCPN SOMEWHAT. TEMPS...PERSISTENCE HERE. 
ALTHO ANY DECENT AMNT OF INSOLATION CULD PUSH MAXES ACROSS THE 90 
DEGREE MARK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE 80S TODAY...AND SLOWLY 
BUMP THEM UP EACH DAY. 

CWF...BASICALLY BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE FA THRU THE END OF THE 
WEEK...WITH A TIGHTER PG IN VICINITY OF STALLED SFC FRNT. S TO SW 
FLOW TO PREVAIL. BEST SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST N OF THE ILM 
WATERS. DURG THE WEEKEND... BERMUDA RIDGING RETREATS SOMEWHAT AS 
RDGING FROM INLAND BEGINS TO PREDOMINATE. CULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS ON 
FRI INTO ERLY SAT IN RESPONSE TO THIS TRANSITION.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
ILM  87 75 88 76 /  50 50 50 40
LBT  88 72 89 73 /  50 50 50 40
FLO  89 73 90 74 /  50 50 50 40
MYR  86 75 86 76 /  50 50 50 40

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RALF