744 
FXUS64 KBMX 211828
AFDBHM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
127 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2002

CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOWING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  ALL ACTIVITY BEING
DRIVEN BY HEATING AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  ONLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT BEING GIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLAY OUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. POPS TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE BASED ON RADAR COVERAGE AROUND
THE TIME OF ZONE ISSUANCE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MID-WEEK...WITH
THE FRONT STALLING OUT OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.  THIS MORNINGS HPC
SURFACE GRAPHICS ALSO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO.  I STILL FIND IT HARD TO
SWALLOW...WITH IT BEING ALMOST TO THE END OF JULY...THAT THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH.  PREVIOUS YEARS HAVE HAD SIMILAR
FORECAST SITUATIONS...AND THE FRONTS ALWAYS SEEM TO STALL OUT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED.  GUT FEELING ON
THIS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA.

WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IN MIND...PLAN ON KEEPING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
PERSISTANCE MOST OF THE PERIOD.

HSV 071/092 072/092 072 222
BHM 072/092 072/092 073 233
MGM 072/093 073/093 073 454

.BHM...NONE.